The deal is in free fall after a contentious White House meeting between President Zelenskyy and President Trump. Trump’s calls for a ceasefire drew the ire of the Ukrainian president, who asserted that Putin could not be trusted to honor any ceasefire agreement. The deal, agreed upon by both parties last Wednesday and released to the public on Friday, calls for the creation of an investment fund, in which Ukraine would contribute 50% of future proceeds from state-owned mineral resources to be reinvested in the country’s reconstruction in exchange for US access to Ukraine’s vast untapped wealth.
Despite Ukraine’s vast mineral wealth—spanning 20,000 mineral deposits covering 116 different types—as of 2022, only 15% of sites were actively exploited. According to Ukrainian estimates, the country possesses $15 trillion worth of rare minerals, though the validity of this claim remains highly disputed.
The untapped potential beneath Ukraine’s soil has been a key bargaining tool in Zelenskyy’s efforts to draw European nations and the United States into negotiating a permanent ceasefire agreement. Currently, Ukraine doesn’t have the infrastructure to properly tap its material wealth, and as estimates suggest that Russia may control up to 40% of its resources in its illegally annexed territory—Zelenskyy hoped to leverage this in negotiations with President Trump, but tensions arose as Trump dodged any firm security agreement and has continued to escalate his rhetoric against Zelenskyy.
Trump’s Rhetoric
Throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump made it abundantly clear that the United States should tamper down, if not eliminate, all support for Ukraine without receiving the 350 billion it had invested back as part of a permanent settlement (a number that is wildly inflated, sitting near 120 billion dollars). As Trump entered office, the rhetoric evolved from calling Zelenskyy “the best salesman in Europe” to outright calling him a dictator that refused to hold democratic elections—this claim was amplified by his circle, including Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.
In amplification of Trump’s heightened attacks towards Zelenskyy, he has also claimed that Russia could “do whatever the hell it wants” with NATO allies if they fail to meet “security commitments” that include increasing each allies commitment from 2% of their GDP to 5% to match the United States’ monetary commitment. In his demands, Trump has made clear that if NATO allies fail to contribute, the United States would pull out of NATO. The United States’ involvement teeters at the edge of concluding as Senior Advisor to the President Elon Musk stated that the United States should pull out of both NATO and the United Nations.
An Exhausting War
The war, which recently reached its three year mark in February, has claimed the lives of thousands of civilians since its onset and sources claim that thousands die every week in the midst of the chaos. With Russia slowly encroaching and maintaining control of 20% of Ukraine concentrated in the Eastern Donetsk region (where a sizeable amount of Ukraine’s material wealth lies), the war has evolved into pure attrition as the frontlines barely move as each side throws soldiers into the meat grinder—but with both sides set in their wants, they don’t wish to cave into any demands.
For Ukraine, they seek to recover the lands they have lost while maintaining a clear agreement and security backing from the United States and NATO (achieved by attaining membership). These demands follow previous ceasefire violations by Putin and Russia by invading oil-rich Crimea and launching a full scale “special operation” in 2022—Ukraine is staunch in its terms.
Russia has echoed hardline sentiments, which include a retention of all Ukrainian territories gained throughout the war and international recognition of these territories as part of Russia’s boundaries. In conjunction with the annexation of Ukrainian soil, Putin seeks to have all international sanctions against Russia (that have tanked its economy) removed.
The Encounter, Europe Rallies
As final negotiations for the preliminary agreement reached its conclusion point, and Zelenskyy trekked to DC to sign in what was intended to be a formal meeting—but if Zelenskyy had hoped for a warm reception in the White House, he received cold indignation from both President Trump and Vice President Vance.
As Zelenskyy was escorted into the White House, an air of tension pervaded the whole of the negotiations as no firm security agreement was part of the initial rare minerals deal and the deal, though agreed upon, was left unsigned by both sides. Then, after exchanging initial pleasantries, Trump and Vance devolved into attack when Zelenskyy questioned Putin’s trustworthiness. Vance proceeded to call Zelenskyy “ungrateful” for all the help the United States had given, and pouncing on this, Trump followed by remarking that Zelenskyy “did not have the cards” to be speaking in that manner and that he was wagering “World War Three” with the game he was playing.
In the seats adjacent to the President, delegates from both sides looked exasperated as the deal fell apart in the heat discussion—particularly annoyed was Marco Rubio who sat cold faced to the entire scene unfolding. Ukrainian delegates, including the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Deputy Prime Minister, all reeled at the scene realizing the tabloid fodder being granted to Moscow to create a rift between the US/Ukraine alliance. Zelenskyy was then forced out of the White House by Secretary of State Rubio as Trump declared no deal would be had unless “attitudes changed.”
Despite the cold shoulder that Zelenskyy received in the United States, he was lauded by European leaders across Europe meeting in London to reaffirm their support for Ukraine by announcing further diplomatic aid and the launch of a new “surge” that seeks to drive Russia back into its own frontiers.
The Deal Resurges
Just yesterday, Zelenskyy affirmed to Fox News Host Brett Baier that he was still prepared to sign the rare minerals deal with the United States if a clause for a firm security agreement was added—President Trump responded to Zelenskyy’s affirmation that the war would go on without a solid commitment by the United States by suggesting that Zelenskyy’s time was short if he didn’t agree to an immediate ceasefire with Russia. The deal now remains frozen after utter free fall.
Update:
President Trump has paused all aid to Ukraine. This is the latest in the President’s hardline stance after the altercation on Friday, this pause stops all delivery of provisions of military assistance and weapons.
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