Bridge of Wills

Thirty-five days until election day, the race is statistically tied. Across the swing states, the candidates are in a mad dash to try and gain an inch of ground that’ll volt them over the finish line. After a dramatic announcement, the Trump campaign refused to accept another debate offer hosted by CNN on October 23rd on the basis that another debate would be too “late” despite the debate precedent showing that such “late” debates have historical precedent. The last chance for the Presidential candidates to make their case on a mass scale has passed, and now the candidates battle for the 2-3% of undecided voters across the seven critical states that will tip the scales in either direction.

With the clock ticking and the rallies becoming more intense, Bridge of Wills decided to wait two weeks to see how the race developed and reached its apotheosis. Now its climax is here, and in this State of the Race, made in collaboration with our Vice-Editor Felix and Emil Ordonez, we intend to encapsulate the country’s mood and emphasize the tightness up and down the ballot.

Kamala Harris

Post Debate Polling

A staggering 67 million Americans watched the Presidential debate, the second-biggest TV event of the year, slightly behind the Super Bowl; across three major polling averages, Harris led between 1.1 and 2.5%, and today, that average is between 2.2 and 3% after the latest round of polling released last Sunday. This round of polling affirmed a small post-debate bump in favor of Harris on a national level: this “boost” manifested itself in bigger outliers like the latest Ipsos poll where Harris leads Trump 47%-40% on the national level. Most polls show Harris routinely leading between 2-4% on the national level, with scarce amounts of polling indicating a Trump lead. Across the seven crucial battleground states, the sign of this post-debate momentum appears scarce and faint.

In the latest round of NYT/Siena polling, Trump leads across the Sunbelt: in Arizona, Trump leads by 5% with likely voters; in Georgia, Trump leads by 3% with likely voters with third-party candidates included; in North Carolina, Trump leads by 2% with likely voters with third-party candidates included. These numbers contrast with the latest round of Marist polling (a pollster that had an excellent track record during the 2022 midterms), which has Harris tied with likely voters in North Carolina, down by 1% in Georgia, down 1% in Georgia. Overall, Harris is underwater in Georgia and Arizona in the 538 average by 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively.

In the Rustbelt, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Harris slightly leads in Wisconsin and Michigan, with Trump narrowly trailing behind. In Pennsylvania, polls by Marist, the Washington Post, Emerson, and a slew of other pollsters show a tied race. The mathematics to 270 rely directly on Pennsylvania, and both Trump’s and Harris’s paths run through the keystone state.

The broader trend shows a slight bump in the national polling averages for Kamala Harris, but it’s a statistical dead heat in the states that will decide this election.

Paths to the White House

With the Presidency hanging in the balance in the hands of just a few pivotal swing states, the paths to the White House are narrow. Below, the Bridge of Wills team wants to show the three likeliest paths to a Kamala Harris victory.

The Great Lakes Path: this path means holding the traditional “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and winning the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska. This was the only route that the Biden campaign saw after the disastrous June 27th debate that led to his eventual withdrawal from the race. While this path seemed to be the only one for the Biden campaign, Harris can capitalize on her support with white suburban women and her increasingly better poll numbers with independents to sweep counties like Bucks and further narrow margins in the traditionally red suburbs around Wisconsin that Democrats have made in-roads with since 2016. In Nebraska CD-2, Harris leads by 7% in the 538 average, and with Harris leading in Wisconsin and Michigan and tied in Pennsylvania, there seems to be her best path to the White House. The former President also acknowledges the likelihood of this path and has taken steps to help prevent it (more on this later).

The Sunbelt Path: this path relies upon Harris’s appeal to minorities in the Sunbelt. Polling suggests that she’s doing much better across demographics like young voters and Hispanics than Biden’s fraught candidacy. This path involves Harris keeping the Biden states of Minnesota (which she’s sure to keep), Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, and expanding into North Carolina (where she seems to be polling better than in Georgia and Arizona, two Biden 2020 states). North Carolina appears to be a good prospect for Harris despite the fact Democrats haven’t won a federal race in the state since 2008, with Governor candidate Mark Robinsons increasingly throwing a wrench into the former President’s plan of winning.

A Mixed Path: this path, which seems the likeliest, involves a combination of states. Based on polling and general trends, the path Kamala Harris can take with a healthy combination of sunbelt states and rustbelt states is taking Michigan (the state in the trio Biden won the “most” by) and taking Nevada: from there, Harris has to hang on to Wisconsin, and picking up either Georgia or North Carolina. Winning Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin and keeping all the lean and likely states puts Harris at 258, meaning she needs 12 electoral votes to be pushed over the finish line.

Donald Trump

Second Assassination Attempt

On September 15th, another assassination attempt was made on the former President while he was moving from holes five to six at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach with donor Steve Witkoff when gunshots went off. This golf stop was a last-minute addition to the President’s schedule: the events proceeding this were just as intense as the first attempt. Prior to shots being fired, a Secret Service agent spotted a rifle barrel sticking out a fence, and the President was quickly scurried away to safety. The Secret Service was much quicker to the scene than they had been during the attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, and thus, the former President was scurried away to safety. However, federal prosecutor Mark Dispoto had a clear shot just 100 feet away from the former President.

The Trump shooting, occurring just hours after the former President declared he “hated” Taylor Swift, was attempted by a man by the name of Ryan Routh. Months before the assassination attempt, Routh wrote in a letter offering a 150k bounty to whoever could end the former President’s life. Routh kept a list of Trump locations over the course of several months to attempt an assassination on the former President. The situation is ongoing, and the state of Florida has launched a probe into the attempt; the DOJ is also cooperating with the investigation, and more information is forthcoming.

Nebraska CD-1 Election Changes

A concerted effort by the Republicans in Nebraska to change the electoral system from awarding electoral votes by congressional district to a winner-takes-all system has stalled. Nebraska is only one of two states that award candidates electoral votes based on individual congressional districts (Maine also does this). Since 1992, Nebraska has awarded candidates electoral votes based on their performance in congressional districts, with the state awarding three electoral votes for the three congressional districts and two for overall performance in the state. Now, just days before the campaign, Republicans attempted to overturn precedent: this change is critical because if the state becomes winner takes all, the “Great Lakes Path” for Harris evaporates, and what’s left is a tied election at 269-269, from there, Republicans can challenge election results due to the tightness of the race. Republican governor Jim Pillen has stated he would support such a move, and after a high-profile visit by South Carolina Senator Lindsey Grahm to support overturning the current system, it seemed set. However, there was Republican opposition that denied the likeliness of such an action.

Senator Mike McDonnell, a Democrat turned Republican, refused to allow such a change, stating, “I have notified Governor [Jim] Pillen that I will not change my long-held position and will oppose any attempted changes to our electoral college system before the 2024 election.” This refusal angered the likes of former President Trump, who declared on his Truth Social, “It would have been better, and far less expensive, for everyone!”

This last-minute push to change electoral votes came as a result of the deadline for the enforcement of laws in Maine to change. It takes 90 days for a law to go into effect in the state of Maine, and Democrats in Maine declared that if Nebraska Republicans were to change their electoral system to winner-takes-all all, Maine would do the same, thus rendering the one electoral advantage Trump would gain null and void as Harris would pick one up from Maine.

It seems likely that the electoral system will remain intact for the upcoming general election, but this move shows that the race is so tight that a single electoral vote could determine the entire race for the White House.

Paths to the White House

Sunbelt + Pennyslvania: this path is simple mathematics for the former President. This path is Trump defending the state of North Carolina, which he won in 2020, and Georgia, which he lost by a slim 0.2% or little more than 11,000 votes. Trump needs to take both Georgia and North Carolina, defend the sole congressional district in Maine (Maine CD-2), and finally win the crown jewel of the election, Pennsylvania. Those 19 electoral votes would volt Trump’s total right to 270 and give him the election. In Pennsylvania, Trump is tied in all the polls against Harris, and there’s a possibility that a 2000 election scenario will arise where the balance of the country hangs upon Pennsylvania.

Sunbelt + a Rustbelt State: Trump would need to pick up Arizona and Georgia (the narrowest states in 2020), win Nevada, and then pick one of the Rustbelt trio (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania). Winning the sunbelt states and keeping all the lean/likely states in his column would put him right at 268, meaning a Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania would put him over the top. For the sake of this scenario, Wisconsin is the easiest pickup because it was the narrowest of the three during the 2020 election.

Sunbelt + Expansion State: The least likely of all scenarios, this state involves Trump winning the Sunbelt and putting a state in play outside of the traditional seven. Polling indicates that his best bid to do this would be the state of Virginia, even though polling shows him far behind Kamala Harris in that state. The Sunbelt puts him at 268, and winning a Virginia would put him at 281, which is more than enough to clear the 270 and win the White House. Additionally, he could put a Minnesota or a New Hampshire in play, but that seems unlikely, as in Minnesota’s case, Harris’s VP is Governor of the State, and New Hampshire has not voted for a Republican since the year 2000 at the Presidential level.

Ratings Change

North Carolina Tilt R –> Tilt D

The drama surrounding Mark Robinson and the complete collapse of his campaign and Harris’s poll numbers among black and young voters puts the state in the Tilt D column. Polls also routinely show a tied race in Carolina, with a new Marist poll showing her overcoming Trump in North Carolina. Thus, this race changes to Tilt D.

Arizona Tilt D–> Tilt R

A combination of factors has influenced this decision; various rounds of polling show Harris behind by a margin of 1 to 5%, according to CNN polls and brand-new NYT/Siena polls, which show that Harris is trailing Trump in the state. In light of the polling, the Bridge of Wills team now believes Trump is the narrow favorite in the state of Arizona, but the margin is expected to be below 1% for either candidate.

Senate

Nebraska Solid R –> Likely R

This senate contest is an exciting race where independent candidate Dan Osborn is tied/leading Republican Deb Fischer and providing a potential upset in Nebraska. Nebraska is a solidly Republican state that was expected to vote deeply Republican, especially with top-of-the-ticket strength in Trump, but is now locked in a surprisingly tight contest with the latest SurveyUSA polling (an A+ pollster) showing Osborn ahead by 1%, 45% to Fischer’s 44%. Other polls show Fischer winning by 2-3%. The Bridge of Wills team believes that Trump’s strength will carry Fischer over the finish line, but Osborn’s strong campaign built upon a strikingly populist tone will make the race much closer than expected.

Florida Likely R –> Lean R

In a potential race that tightens up toward the finish line, Debbie Mucosal-Powell is putting up an increasingly stronger contest against Republican Rick Scott. Scott is known for winning squeaker elections in every single race he’s been a part of, but this cycle, he might be surprisingly vulnerable with issues of Social Security and Medicare being on the ballot at the topic of the ticket and with an abortion referendum Amendment 4. With Scott’s failure to win back the Senate for Republicans as NRSC Chair, his past history with Medicare, and his controversial comments related to Social Security, this race is close. Polling reflects this as Scott leads in polls by a margin of 1-4%, and DSCC chair Gary Peters invests money there as Montana becomes an increasingly tough prospect (update for this dropping Monday); this race could be a sleeper.

House of Representatives Update, written by Emil Ordonez

No Tossup Rating changes for the House:

AZ-01: Tilt R → Tilt D
AK-AL: Lean D → Tilt D
CA-22: Tilt R → Tilt D
CA-40: Lean R → Likely R
CA-45: Solid D → Tossup
CA-47: Solid D → Lean D
CO-03: Lean R → Likely R
CO-08: Lean D → Tilt D
CT-05: Lean D → Likely D
FL-07: Likely R → Solid R
FL-15: Likely R → Solid R
IN-01: Lean D → Likely D
IA-01: Likely R → Lean R
IA-03: Lean R → Tilt R
ME-02: Lean D → Tilt D
MD-06: Lean D → Likely D
MI-03: Solid D → Likely D
MI-07: Lean D → Tilt D
MI-08: Lean D → Tilt D
MN-02: Lean D → Likely D
NE-01: Likely R → Solid R
NE-02: Lean R → Tilt D
NV-01: Lean D → Likely D
NV-03: Lean D → Likely D
NV-04: Lean D → Likely D
NH-01: Lean D → Likely D
NJ-07: Lean R → Tilt R
NM-01: Likely D → Solid D
NY-01: Lean R → Likely R
NY-03: Lean D → Likely D
NY-17: Tilt D → Tilt R
NC-01: Lean D → Tilt D
NC-06: Solid D → Solid R
NC-13: Lean D → Solid R
NC-14: Solid D → Solid R
OH-13: Tilt D → Lean D
OR-04: Likely D → Solid D
OR-05: Lean D → Tilt D
OR-06: Likely D → Solid D
PA-01: Lean R → Likely R
PA-07: Lean D → Tilt D
PA-17: Solid D → Lean D 
TX-34: Lean D → Likely D
WA-03: Tilt R → Tilt D
WA-08: Lean D → Likely D
WI-01: Solid R → Likely R

22 Most Competitive (Tossups):

Alaska’s at-large district: Tilt D

Incumbent Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola is seeking re-election to a 2nd full term. First, she won the seat in an upset in a 2022 special election, and she won a full term in November 2022 by 10 points, which is remarkable considering that Trump also won Alaska by 10 points in 2020.

After winning the primary with just over half the vote, Peltola faces Republican opponent Nick Begich, who had also previously challenged her in 2022. In order to avoid splitting the Republican vote, Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom dropped out of the race and endorsed Begich, making the race much more competitive for Peltola this time around. Due to her overperformance and relative popularity in Alaska (even being endorsed by the NRA and Republican senator Lisa Murkowski), Peltola is narrowly favored to win re-election.

Arizona’s 1st District: Tilt D

Incumbent Republican congressman David Schweikert is seeking re-election in this northeast Phoenix-based district. Schweikert is one of 16 Republicans running for re-election in a district President Biden carried in 2020 and faces Democratic opponent Amish Shah.

Throughout the Trump era and beyond, the Phoenix metropolitan area has rapidly trended towards the Democrats, culminating in the state electing Democrats to several statewide and federal offices and voting for Biden in 2020. Schweikert had been narrowly re-elected in 2022 by less than a percentage point against his Democratic opponent. Seeing as Phoenix continues to trend blue in elections, the Democrats are narrowly favored to flip this seat.

Arizona’s 6th district: Tilt D

Based in southeast Arizona and including parts of Tucson, the state’s 6th district is currently represented by incumbent Republican congressman Juan Ciscomani, who is running for re-election. Ciscomani is one of 16 Republicans running for re-election in a district President Biden carried in 2020. He is facing his 2022 Democratic opponent, Kristen Engel, in a rematch.

Engel may pull out a win this time around; she has outraised Ciscomani and Arizona’s trend towards Democrats favors her as well. However, the district has a sizeable Hispanic population. Hispanics have been trending towards the Republicans recently, and this factor might just be enough to return Ciscomani to Congress. 

California’s 13th district: Tilt D

The 13th district, based in California’s Central Valley, had been drawn to be a Democratic-leaning swing district. Nonetheless, Republican John Duarte won the seat in 2022 and is gunning for a second term. Adam Gray, his 2022 Democratic opponent, is hoping to defeat him this time around after losing by 584 votes in the last election.

Considering Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is from the state of California, her coattails might just be enough to pull Gray over the finish line to win the seat. However, the district has a sizeable Latino population, and with Latinos trending towards the Republicans recently, Duarte might just be able to pull off another win. 

California’s 22nd district: Tilt D

The 22nd district, based in the San Joaquin Valley, is one of the most Democratic-leaning districts to be represented by a Republican. Its congressman, David Valadao, holds a rare distinction in the House; he is one of only two Republicans who voted against Trump and will be re-elected in the 2022 midterms. Rudy Salas, his 2022 Democratic opponent, is once again challenging Valadao in November, having narrowly lost last time around.

Valadao has a history of overperforming the top of the Republican ticket; he was elected in 2012, 2016, and 2020 despite the Democratic candidate carrying his district by large margins. On the other hand, polarization has only gotten worse over time, and native Californian Kamala Harris’s coattails might help Salas win this time. The district’s huge Democratic lean also does not help Valadao in this case.

California’s 27th district: Tilt D

Incumbent Republican Congressman Mike Garcia had faced Democratic opponent Christy Smith in three consecutive elections since his win in a 2020 special election. He managed to defeat her every time in this northern Los Angeles County-based district. Now, the Democrats have learned their lesson and have picked a different candidate (former Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides) to run against him. 

Garcia is one of 16 Republicans running for re-election in a district President Biden carried in 2020 and has managed to win despite the odds. However, those wins were all against the same Democratic opponent, and now he faces an entirely different candidate. The combined factors of the seat’s Democratic lean and native Californian Kamala Harris’s coattails may finally help Democrats win this seat. 

California’s 41st district: Tilt D

Incumbent Republican Ken Calvert is running for re-election in his Riverside County-based district, which narrowly voted for Trump in 2020. He is having a rematch with Democratic challenger Will Rollins, who he narrowly defeated in 2022.

Rollins has proven to be a good candidate, outraising Calvert in fundraising and leading in the two polls that have come out thus far. Additionally, there is also the chance that Kamala Harris could carry the district in November, which could help Rollins defeat Calvert. However, Calvert has represented this district since 1993. Incumbency just might help Calvert win in November. 

California’s 45th District: Tilt R

While the Orange County-based district voted for President Biden in 2020, it has been represented by Republican congresswoman Michelle Steel since 2021. She is facing Democratic challenger Derek Tran this November.

Historically, the district was Republican-leaning and still is in local elections. It was only recently that the district started trending towards the Democrats. The district also features a significant Asian-American population. Tran, a first-time candidate and son of Vietnamese immigrants, is the narrow underdog against Steel, whose parents fled the North Korean communist regime. Steel has been a prolific fundraiser and has been very good with her groundwork, making defeating her a daunting challenge to take on.

Colorado’s 8th district: Tilt D

Colorado’s 8th district is based in the Denver suburbs and features the largest Hispanic population out of any of Colorado’s eight congressional districts. It is also a presidential bellwether, having voted for the electoral college victor in the last four elections. Democratic congresswoman Yadira Caraveo won this seat when it was first created after the 2020 redistricting cycle. She faces Republican state representative Gabe Evans in November.

The campaign has become a bit feisty recently, with Caraveo accusing Evans of not adequately denouncing a campaign staffer’s antisemitic social media post. Caraveo also has amassed a huge war chest, outraising her Republican opponent. Meanwhile, the Libertarian candidate dropped out earlier this month and endorsed Evans; this is significant as Libertarian candidates tend to “take votes” away from Republican candidates. Caraveo remains the narrow favorite to win, however, owing to her vicious fundraising and her Hispanic background.

Iowa’s 3rd District: Tilt R

Based in southwestern Iowa and including the state capital, Des Moines, the 3rd district is currently represented by Republican Zach Nunn. He faces Democratic opponent Lanon Baccam. 

Iowa as a whole has trended massively towards the Republicans in recent years. The district’s previous representative, Democrat Cindy Axne, lost re-election in 2022 as Republicans also defeated two Democratic statewide officeholders. Currently, the state’s congressional delegation is fully Republican for the first time since the 1980s. However, Baccam has performed well in polling, and a recent Selzer poll showed Kamala Harris down only 4 points in the state (Trump won by 9 points in 2020). The state’s Republican trend however does make Nunn the narrow favorite in November.

Maine’s 2nd district: Tilt D

Covering much of rural, northern Maine, the 2nd district is currently represented by Democrat Jared Golden, who has been in office since 2019. He faces Republican challenger Austin Theriault in his bid for a fourth term.

Golden has proven to be popular in the district, which is remarkable considering it’s the only district that Trump won in New England in 2020. He is one of the most conservative members of the House Democratic Caucus, even recently saying that he would be fine if Trump won the election this November. However, Golden is gearing up for his toughest matchup yet. Theriault, a former NASCAR racer, overperformed in his first state legislative election by double digits in 2022 and has led Golden in a recent poll of the district. There is also the fact that Golden has reneged on his opposition to an assault weapons ban following a mass shooting in Lewiston last year; this may prove to be anathema in a district with a significant gun owner population. However, as of right now, Golden may still eke out a win due to the state’s ranked-choice voting system – a system that has arguably helped him in the past. 

Michigan’s 7th district: Tilt D

The Democratic incumbent Elissa Slotkin is retiring and instead running for the U.S. Senate. The district, based around the state capital Lansing, now features a race between former state senators Democrat Curtis Hertel Jr. and Republican Tom Barrett

In the three polls conducted thus far, Barrett led Hertel by high single digits. However, it must be noted that these were Republican-leaning pollsters. It is very hard to tell what levels of support each candidate has right now in the race. However, the district’s trend toward the Democrats in recent elections makes Hertel a very narrow favorite. 

Michigan’s 8th district: Tilt D

The Democratic incumbent Dan Kildee is retiring. The district, based around the Tri-Cities metropolitan area and the city of Flint in central Michigan, now features a race between Democratic state senator Kristen McDonald Rivet and Republican former news anchor Paul Junge.

The district is very competitive, being a classic Rust Belt district that used to be strongly Democratic but is now trending towards the Republicans. Junge had led in the two polls conducted thus far, but these were conducted months ago. It is very hard to tell what levels of support each candidate has right now in the race. McDonald Rivet may be the narrow favorite to win in November, owing to the presence of the city of Flint, which is heavily Democratic.

Nebraska’s 2nd district: Tilt D

Based in Omaha, Nebraska, the 2nd district was carried by President Biden in the 2020 election, giving one of Nebraska’s 5 electoral votes to the Democratic ticket. The district, however, is represented by Republican congressman Don Bacon, who has held the seat since 2017. He faces Democratic challenger Tony Vargas, who narrowly lost to him in 2022.

While the Omaha metropolitan area historically was Republican-leaning, it has trended towards the Democrats in recent elections. Bacon had cultivated an image as a moderate Republican and was able to win re-election amidst a nationwide blue wave in 2018 and Biden carrying the seat by a healthy margin in 2020. However, 2022 sent a warning sign that his honeymoon might be over as Bacon narrowly won re-election in an underperformance from 2020. Several polls conducted show Vargas with a lead, and with Kamala Harris also having led several polls in the district this may be enough to finally unseat Bacon. 

New Jersey’s 7th district: Tilt R

New Jersey’s 7th district is one of the wealthiest districts in the United States, spanning suburbs adjacent to the densely-populated Hudson County to areas on the Pennsylvania-New Jersey border. Republican Tom Kean Jr. is running for a second term to represent this seat and is facing Democratic challenger Sue Altman.

The district is the most competitive in the state of New Jersey, sporting a highly educated electorate and a diversifying population. Kean has chosen to form a moderate image somewhat similar to his father, beloved ex-governor Tom Kean Sr. He has supported tougher immigration laws and voted for far-right Republican congressman Jim Jordan to become Speaker of the House while also saying he is pro-choice and pro-gay marriage. Altman, on the other hand, has proven to be a prolific fundraiser, outraising Kean in the third quarter, and has run an aggressive campaign with progressive policy positions. Ultimately, Kean’s name just might help him win – after all, New Jersey voters remember his father more fondly than any other former governor. 

New York’s 17th district: Tilt R

Based in the Lower Hudson Valley, the 17th district is currently represented by Republican Mike Lawler, who is one of 16 Republicans running for re-election in a district President Biden carried in 2020. Lawler famously won in an upset in 2022 against former congressman Sean Patrick Maloney, who chaired the House Democrats’ campaign arm. Lawler is facing Democratic former congressman Mondaire Jones, who had lost a Democratic primary to retain his seat in the House in 2022.

Lawler has a few things going for him. First, Jones failed to attain the nomination of the left-leaning Working Families Party, which went instead to a former Republican who gathered his friends and told them to vote for him. The district also has a non-insignificant Orthodox Jewish population. Orthodox Jews have trended towards the Republicans in recent New York state elections. Following the removal of Speaker Kevin McCarthy in October 2023, Jones tweeted a photo of McCarthy and Lawler meeting with Jewish leaders in Rockland County captioned, “Well, that was a waste of time.” It was later taken down after much outcry. Lawler’s bipartisanship and relative moderation also do him favors. However, Jones has a large war chest of funds, and the district’s proximity to heavily Democratic New York City also poses a warning sign to Lawler. Ultimately, if Lawler does pull off a win in November, it would be due to Jones losing the WFP nomination and unintentionally insulting Orthodox Jews. 

New York’s 19th district:: Tilt D

The Upper Hudson Valley-based district is represented by Republican congressman Marc Molinaro, one of 16 Republicans running for re-election in a district President Biden carried in 2020. He is facing Democratic challenger Josh Riley in a rematch of 2022.

The district is highly competitive, with Trump having won the district in 2016 and Biden winning in 2020. Riley has built a solid ground game with his campaign and fundraising, having outraised Molinaro. However, the district’s more rural composition keeps the seat competitive for Molinaro. Overall, Riley is a narrow favorite to flip the seat this November – the district’s inclusion of the heavily Democratic college towns of Ithaca and Binghamton and its proximity to heavily Democratic Albany would be part of the reason why he wins. 

North Carolina’s 1st District: Tilt D

North Carolina’s 1st district, which spans the northeastern portion of the state and includes many Black Belt counties and the suburbs of the heavily Democratic ‘Research Triangle’, became the state’s most competitive district after Republicans in the state legislature redrew the congressional map to be more Republican-leaning. The Democratic incumbent, Don Davis, is facing Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout.

It is very hard to tell who wins this district. Davis has benefitted from a fundraising advantage, while Buckhout has benefitted from the district’s new Republican-leaning areas. The district used to be strongly Democratic-leaning, having been represented by Democrats since the 19th century. However, the district has become more competitive in recent years, with Davis winning by 5% in 2022 compared to ex-congressman G.K. Butterfield’s 39-point win in 2018. Ultimately, the negative coattails of Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson’s controversial background may help Davis hold on to the seat.

Oregon’s 5th district: Tilt D

Incumbent Republican congresswoman Lori Chavez-DeRemer currently represents this district, which includes the suburbs east of Portland and the Bend metropolitan area. She is one of 16 Republicans running for re-election in a district President Biden carried in 2020. She is facing Democratic challenger Janelle Bynum.

Bynum has amassed a fundraising advantage against Chavez-DeRemer and has tried to nationalize the race, tying the congresswoman to Trump. Chavez-DeRemer has focused more on local issues and has criticized Bynum’s record on crime while in the state legislature. A few recent polls have shown Bynum ahead, but narrowly. Due to the district’s proximity to heavily Democratic Portland and the nationwide suburban shift towards the Democratic Party, Bynum is narrowly favored to win re-election. 

Pennsylvania’s 7th district: Tilt D

Centered in the Lehigh Valley, the district has voted for the electoral college winner in the last four presidential elections. Democrat Susan Wild has represented the district since 2019 and is running for re-election. She faces Republican state representative Ryan Mackenzie in November.

Wild has had a history of winning tough elections. She narrowly won re-election in 2020 and 2022, the latter of which many pundits expected her to lose. Wild is also a prolific fundraiser and has led in the two polls conducted thus far in the district. Due to these factors, Wild is the narrow favorite to win in November. 

Pennsylvania’s 8th district: Tilt D

Incumbent Democratic congressman Matt Cartwright has represented this district, which is anchored in northeast Pennsylvania and includes Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, since 2013. He is one of 5 Democrats seeking re-election in a seat former President Trump carried in 2020. Cartwright is facing Republican challenger Rob Bresnahan Jr.

Pennsylvania’s 8th district is ancestrally Democratic and is one of those classic white working-class congressional districts that was reliably Democratic until Trump’s election in 2016. Cartwright has remained popular despite the district’s trend to the Republican Party, winning in 2016 and 2020 even as Trump carried the district both times. Cartwright is a narrow favorite to win in November if Trump’s coattails don’t end up dragging Bresnahan over the finish line.

Washington’s 3rd district: Tilt D

Encompassing the southwestern portion of Washington state, the 3rd district has been represented by Democratic congresswoman Marie Gluesenkamp Perez since 2023. She had been elected in an upset in 2022 and is now one of 5 Democrats seeking re-election in a district Trump won in 2020. She is facing Republican challenger Joe Kent, whom she defeated in 2022.

Perez had won her seat in the first place arguably due to Joe Kent. Kent espoused far-right views and was an election denier. As such his views alienated the nominally Republican-leaning electorate so much that Perez ended up winning. Due to Kent’s presence on the ballot once again, Perez is a narrow favorite to win re-election this November. 

16 Leans (can go either way):

California’s 47th district: Lean D

Incumbent Democratic congresswoman Katie Porter retired to launch a failed bid for the open Senate seat in California. Vying to replace her to represent this Orange County-based district is Democratic state senator Dave Min. Republican former state legislator Scott Baugh is running for the seat again after Porter defeated him in 2022.

Due to the presence of heavily Democratic Irvine, the overall Democratic trend in Orange County, and native Californian Kamala Harris’s expected coattails, Min is the leading candidate in this seat. Baugh lost to Porter narrowly in 2022; he will probably lose to Min by a slightly bigger margin this year.

Connecticut’s 5th district: Lean D

Based in the northwestern portion of the state, Connecticut’s 5th district is represented by Democratic congresswoman Jahana Hayes, who is seeking re-election. She is facing Republican challenger George Logan in a rematch. 

Hayes had very narrowly defeated Logan in 2022. This was not a surprise, considering the 5th district is nominally the most competitive of the state’s congressional districts and that 2022 was a Republican-leaning year. However, Hayes will have a slightly easier time trying to win re-election this November; Kamala Harris’s coattails in New England will be enough to usher her and most of her other New England Democratic colleagues to victory. 

Illinois’s 17th district: Lean D

Encompassing the northwestern portion of the state, Illinois’s 17th district was intentionally gerrymandered by the state legislature to be somewhat favorable to Democratic candidates. Democratic congressman Eric Sorensen has held the seat since 2023 and is running for re-election against Republican challenger Joe McGraw, a retired judge.

Sorensen is favored to win in November. He has exhibited a fundraising advantage and is benefitting from the district’s Democratic lean. However, it would not be surprising if McGraw wins; Sorensen narrowly won his first election to the seat. 

Iowa’s 1st District: Lean R

Incumbent Republican congresswoman Marianette Miller-Meeks represents Iowa’s 1st district, which spans the southeastern portion of the state. She is running for re-election and is facing Democratic former state senator Christina Bohannan in a rematch of 2022.

Miller-Meeks has her fair share of competitive races, winning by only six votes in 2020. She won comfortably in 2022 as a red wave swept through Iowa. However, she possibly faces a more competitive race this November, as a recent poll has shown Bohannan and the congresswoman tied. A Selzer poll showing Kamala Harris being down by only 4 points (Trump won the state by 9 points in 2020) also indicates that the district is primed to be competitive. However, due to the state and the district’s Republican trend, Miller-Meeks is the favorite candidate to win re-election. 

Michigan’s 10th district: Lean R

Incumbent Republican congressman John James is one of 4 Black Republican representatives in the House. The district is comprised of southern Macomb County and other suburbs north of Detroit. James is facing Democratic challenger Carl Marlinga, whom he narrowly defeated in 2022.

James is relatively popular among his constituents and is the favorite to win re-election. He has been a prolific fundraiser. The district’s trend toward the Republican Party after being ancestrally Democratic is also another factor in why James is favored to win. However, the race in November is expected to be tight, as James only won by 0.5% last time around.

Montana’s 1st district: Lean R

Spanning through the western portion of Montana, the 1st district is currently represented by Republican congressman Ryan Zinke, who had been Trump’s secretary of the interior. He is facing Democratic challenger Monica Tranel in a rematch of 2022. 

The district had been surprisingly close in 2022, with Zinke only getting a plurality of votes and winning by 3%. The district is also not as Republican-leaning as the rural 2nd district, as evidenced by the presence of Democratic strongholds Missoula and Bozeman. Democratic senator Jon Tester, who carried the district in all his election bids, may also help Tranel narrow the gap with Zinke. However, due to 2024 being a presidential election year, Trump’s coattails may be enough to help Zinke win re-election. 

New Mexico’s 2nd district: Lean D

The 2nd district is comprised of southern and western New Mexico, and has been represented by Democrat Gabe Vasquez since 2023. Republican ex-congresswoman Yvette Herrell is trying to reclaim the seat after she lost it to Vasquez in 2022.

The 2nd district had been configured as a Democratic-leaning district by the New Mexico state legislature, as part of a Democratic gerrymander implemented upon the state’s congressional districts. Due to this gerrymander, Vasquez is favored to win re-election in November. However, it will be a close race, as Vasquez won very narrowly in 2022.

New York’s 4th district: Lean D

New York’s 4th district is one of the most Democratic-leaning seats held by a Republican. It is among the wealthiest congressional districts nationwide. Incumbent Anthony D’Esposito has held the seat since 2023, and is facing Democratic challenger Laura Gillen this November.

The district comprises of the South Shore of Nassau County on Long Island, which has been politically competitive in federal and state elections. D’Esposito had won the seat in an upset in 2022. This time around, he has to deal with the presidential election’s coattails, which will probably flip the seat back into the Democratic column come November. However, the seat is not a safe bet for Democrats, as Long Island has been trending Republican lately. 

New York’s 18th district: Lean D

The 18th district is based in the mid-Hudson Valley, and has been represented by Democrat Pat Ryan since 2022. He is running for re-election against Republican challenger Allison Esposito.

Ryan is the favorite to win this seat; he had won a tough special election against Republican Marc Molinaro (who now represents the 19th district) to enter the House and survived a Republican mini-wave in 2022. He has outraised his Republican challenger in fundraising. However, just like the Hudson Valley-based 17th and 19th districts, the 18th district is also expected to be competitive. 

New York’s 22nd district: Lean D 

Based in Central New York, the 22nd district includes Syracuse and Utica. Republican Brandon Williams has represented the district since 2023. He is one of 16 Republicans running for re-election in a district President Biden carried in 2020. He is facing Democratic challenger and state senator John Mannion in November.

New York state legislators had redrawn the congressional district map after a state court struck it down in 2023. In the process, they made the 22nd district more Democratic-leaning. As a result, Williams is the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the country. An earlier scandal which involved him being recorded yelling at a staffer did not do him any favors. Williams’s office has the 3rd-highest rate of turnover of any member of Congress. These factors all contribute to a probable Mannion victory come November. 

Ohio’s 9th district: Lean D

The Democratic incumbent congresswoman Marcy Kaptur is the longest-serving female member of the House, having held her Toledo-based seat since 1983. She is one of 5 Democrats seeking re-election in a seat former President Trump won in 2020. Kaptur is facing Republican challenger and state representative Derek Merrin in her bid for a 22nd term.

Kaptur’s longevity as an incumbent makes her the favorite in the race. Despite Republicans in the state legislature adding Republican-leaning areas to her district after the 2020 redistricting cycle, Kaptur won by 13 points anyway. However, that election was against a scandal-ridden Republican. Kaptur faces a much more competent challenger, although she still retains the advantage in funding and incumbency.

Ohio’s 13th district: Lean D

Incumbent Democratic congresswoman Emilia Sykes has represented this Akron-based district since 2023. She is facing Republican challenger and former state legislator Kevin Coughlin.

The seat overall is Democratic-leaning due to its proximity to heavily Democratic Cleveland and the presence of heavily Democratic Akron. However, it is still a competitive seat. Sykes had won by a comfortable margin in 2022, even as several pundits predicted her loss. She remains the favorite candidate to retain her seat due to the overall Democratic lean and the prominence of her father, Vernon Sykes, who is a popular state legislator representing parts of the district.

Pennsylvania’s 10th District: Lean R

Based in the state capital of Harrisburg and surrounding areas, the 10th district is currently represented by Republican Scott Perry. Perry is facing Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson in November.

Perry, despite his prominence as a leader in the far-right Freedom Caucus of the House Republican Conference, has managed to win re-election in this somewhat marginal district. Stelson, however, is putting up a fight, managing to gain a fundraising advantage over the Republican congressman. The district’s Republican lean ultimately cements Perry as the favorite to win in November. 

Virginia’s 2nd district: Lean R

Encompassing Hampton Roads and including Virginia Beach, the 2nd district has a heavy military presence. It is one of the most competitive districts in the country and is currently represented by Republican Jen Kiggans. She is one of 18 Republicans who are running for re-election in a district President Biden carried in 2020. She is facing Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smasal.

Despite Biden carrying the seat in 2020, Kiggans is the favorite to win re-election. Kiggans has proven to be popular in the district and has outraised her relatively unknown challenger. Still, the district is expected to be competitive this November. 

Virginia’s 7th district: Lean D

Incumbent Democratic congresswoman Abigail Spanberger is retiring to gear up for the Virginia gubernatorial race. Democrat Eugene Vindman, the brother of former national security official Alexander Vindman, is vying to replace her. He is facing Republican candidate Derrick Anderson. 

The district is suburban in nature and is based in northern Virginia, not far from the D.C. metropolitan area. It is a prime example of an ancestrally Republican suburban district that trended Democratic starting in the Trump era. Vindman, despite having very loose connections to the district and being more of a national figure (due to his brother’s prominence in Trump’s first impeachment), has proven to be a successful fundraiser and, therefore, the favorite to win this seat. However, expect the seat to be competitive. 

Wisconsin’s 3rd district: Lean R

Spanning the Driftless Area in western and southwestern Wisconsin, the 3rd district is represented by Republican Derrick Van Orden. He is facing Democratic challenger Rebecca Cooke.

Van Orden has been quite a character. He was present at the January 6th insurrection at the Capitol. He swore at pages taking pictures of the interior of the Capitol dome. Van Orden essentially sits on the far-right position of the Republican Party, which is interesting considering the moderate political nature of the 3rd district, which includes the Democratic strongholds of Eau Claire and La Crosse and many other Republican-leaning areas. Despite these factors, Van Orden is a favorite to win in November; the district is one of the classic white working-class districts that trended toward the Republicans starting in the Trump era. Cooke, however, has narrowed the race, with a recent poll showing her ahead of Van Orden. 

222 D, 213 R